LONGSHOTS A GOOD SHOT FOR THE JUVENALE?

Longshots: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile news is one of the most closely followed among the 14 races in the two-day series. Usually, the race ends up determining the winner of the Eclipse Award (top two-year-old male) and can serve as a preview of the Triple Crown season for the next year. Such horses as Nyquist, Exaggerator, Brody’s Cause, Good Magic, Game Winner, Mr. Money, Complexity and others have come out of a solid Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to fare well as a three-year old.

Take a look at this latest Breeders’ Cup news special and check out right below the latest Breeders’ Cup Classic betting odds, courtesy of JazzSports.ag.

Breeders’ Cup Classic – Top 5 Betting Odds*

November 6th-7th, 2020

Odds to Win – 2020 Breeders’ Cup ClassicOdds
Improbable+225
Tix the Law+250
Maximum Security+400
Authentic+650
Tom’s D’Etat+750

*Odds are subject to change.

Breeders’ Cup News: Why You Should Consider Longshots in the Juvenile

Longshots have paid out better in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over the last 20 years than in many of the other races in the festival. Of the last 20 winners, 15 have paid out $10 or more on a $2 bet, and eight of those 20 have led to winners with double-digit odds. Five of those winners paid out at least $30 on a $2 win bet

There have only been four favorites to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in the last 20 years. War Pass (2007), Uncle Mo (2010), Shanghai Bobby (2012) and Game Winner (2018).

Five of the 20 winners have paid between +350 and +500; which means that the other 11 winners have paid off as longshots. Eight of them win at +1050 or higher.

Longshots in the Juvenile

This means that the average odds for the Juvenile winner over the last 20 years has been +1153, with a median of +670. The median would lead to a payout of $15.40 on a $2 bet.

Of those eight double-digit winners, four paid more than +2500 odds: Action This Day (+2680 in 2003), Wilko (+2830 in 2004), Vale of York (+3060) in 2009 and Storm the Court (+4590) a year ago. Vale of York is a bit of an outlier, as he had come over from Italy and picked up his upset on a main track that was synthetic.

The other double-digit longshots had cracked the top three in their last prep race; but only two of them won, and those winners both came from maiden special weight races.

The key is to take a look at prospects that have not been raced heavily who either did well in graded stakes or just won a maiden race. Horses that can hang off the pace and pour it on late tend to do well here too.

Give an EDGE to your horse-betting with the help of Horse Racing Tote’s expert racing advice.

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