2023 Coronation Stakes & Commonwealth Cup Odds

Last year’s European champion juvenile colt and filly shower celebrity stardust over Royal Ascot on Friday, with Classic heroine Tahiyra a heavy favorite for the G1 2023 Coronation Stakes against her old rival Meditate, and Little Big Bear bidding to stake his claim for champion sprint honors against the promising Sakheer and Shaquille in the G1 Commonwealth Cup.

Breeders Cup Odds

Coronation Stakes

G1, £600,000, 1m turf (round), 3yo fillies, 11.20am ET

The highlight of day four at Royal Ascot is the Coronation, and despite having only seven runners Friday’s race is a tangle of old form and old rivalries with the betting market pointing squarely to the status quo, with a very heavy favourite bidding to continue her dominance.

In this race the buck stops with Tahiyra (8-13), last year’s European champion two-year-old filly, who has fulfilled that promise with two top-class performances in 2023 in which she has finished ahead of four of today’s rivals.

At the beginning of May she was just denied when runner-up in the mud in the G1 1,000 Guineas over the Newmarket mile, but still finished more than ten lengths ahead of sixth-placed Meditate (5-1), with Mammas Girl (28-1) in 11th and Remarquee (28-1) in 15th. Three weeks later she went to The Curragh for the G1 Irish 1,000 Guineas, on much faster ground at the same distance, and ran out an impressive winner by a length and a half from Meditate, with boxcar longshot Comhra (33-1) finishing fast for third, a head away.

That form gives Tahiyra rock-solid credentials and she goes well on all types of ground; she is expected to win but Ascot has thrown up plenty of surprises this week.

Meditate won the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Keeneland last year, although that was not a particularly strong race, and has been beaten by Tahiyra all three times they’ve met.

That effort at The Curragh was the closest she’s got and even with her yard in sparkling form there’s no reason why she should turn the tables, while although Comhra impressed with her strong rally she was 150-1 and has only ever won a maiden; it’s hard to see her winning but at these odds she’s a huge overlay. Mammas Girl and Remarquee are both G3 winners over seven furlongs on rain-softened ground, and are likely to struggle at this level, on this ground.

There’s also a rematch between the remaining two runners, who filled the exacta in a mile stakes at York on fast ground when Sounds Of Heaven (12-1) came out on top by a short head over Queen For You (8-1).

That was both a seasonal reappearance and a stakes debut for Sounds Of Heaven, while Queen For You was coming off just a debut victory over this course and distance, and both fillies are entitled to move up a long way off such a skimpy body of work. The class gulf is wide, though, and they could both run a clear career-best and not hit the board.

2023 Coronation Stakes Odds & Betting Pick

HorseJockeyHorse Racing Odds by Jazzsports
TahiyraChris Hayes-163
MeditateRyan Moore+500
Queen For YouRobert Havlin+800
Sounds Of HeavenRonan Whelan+1200
Mammas GirlKevin Stott+2800
RemarqueeRob Hornby+2800
ComhraWilliam Buick +3300

Despite her short odds it’s hard to look away from TAHIYRA, who is 3-0 over her main rival and has a solid G1 record that gives her a massive class edge.

Commonwealth Cup

G1, £600,000, 6f turf (straight), 3yo, 10.05am ET

Another heavy favourite colours the outlook in the Commonwealth Cup, with global supertrainer Aidan O’Brien unleashing his shortest-priced challenger of a week in which he has already signed for G1 success.

And it’s hard to argue with the bookmakers’ assessment of Little Big Bear (11-10), last year’s European champion two-year-old with a five-for-seven count that already includes a G1 victory at this distance and success in a five-furlong stakes at last year’s Royal Ascot jamboree.

Okay, he blew out in the G1 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket when he couldn’t handle the mud and the mile, but he bounced back brilliantly on fast ground over six furlongs in the G2 Sandy Lane at Haydock, dashing clear with an electrifying change of gear before being wrapped up to beat Shouldvebeenaring (25-1) by a length and a quarter – a performance made all the more compelling after third-placed Bradsell, beaten more than nine lengths, won the G1 King’s Stand here on Tuesday.

It’s impossible to quibble with that performance and there’s probably better to come, as the Sandy Lane was no more than a sighter, a prep race.

Fellow 2,000 Guineas flop Sakheer (4-1) will be much happier returned to sprinting, and showed he had a big future in the division when strolling home eased down by three and a half lengths in the G2 Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury in September, with Shouldvebeenaring fourth. He hasn’t yet hit the heights achieved by Little Big Bear but is on the brink and a major player here.

The fast-improving Shaquille (10-1) has won his last four starts, all at this distance, and deserves this upgrade after his comfortable score in a stakes at Newbury, when he rolled gate-to-wire with odds-on disappointment Noble Style (12-1) third, beaten three lengths, and longshot Rumstar (80-1) sixth, beaten five and a half lengths.

He could again be the pace factor, while Noble Style was unbeaten in three as a juvenile including at G2 level and first-time cheekpieces may assist. The latter is much preferred to barnmate Mischief Magic (25-1), last year’s G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner but beaten out of sight in a G3 over course and distance on his first start of 2023, in which The XO (66-1) was a 125-1 runner-up and Marbaan (33-1) – who may want to go longer – took fourth.

The pacy Lezoo (9-1) is a 1,000 Guineas non-stayer cutting back, and this is her spot judged on the star quality she showed when winning the six-furlong G1 Cheveley Park at Newmarket in September, beating subsequent G1 winners Meditate and Mawj with Swingalong (40-1) – who had earlier beaten Queen Me (40-1) by a neck in the six-furlong G2 Lowther at York – four lengths back in fourth.

She has major talent but this is a tough task against the boys, which also applies to Ocean Quest (18-1), beaten a head in the G3 Lacken over six furlongs at Naas by a barnmate of the favourite.

2023 Commonwealth Cup Odds & Betting Prediction

HorseJockeyHorse Racing Odds by Jazzsports
Little Big BearRyan Moore+110
SakheerDavid Egan+400
LezooFrankie Dettori+800
ShaquilleOisin Murphy+1000
Noble StyleJames Doyle+1400
Ocean QuestColin Keane+1800
ShouldvebeenaringSean Levey+2500
Mischief MagicWilliam Buick+2800
MarbaanJamie Spencer+3300
Queen MeJim Crowley+4000
SwingalongClifford Lee+4000
RumstarRob Hornby+6600
The X ORobert Havlin+6600

Sprinting is the game for LITTLE BIG BEAR and he can live up to his abundant promise, with the form of his recent easy win given a huge boost earlier this week.

Read here the 2023 Commonwealth Cup & Coronation Stakes Recap

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