BC Juvenile Fillies
Grade 1 – Purse $2,000,000 – 1 1/16 miles – Dirt – 2 Year Old Fillies
Fourteen fillies are set to go to post for the second race on Breeders Cup Friday which is the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies and the early morning line favorite is Todd Pletcher’s Chocolate Gelato, who is currently 2-3 and won the Grade 1 Frizette last time, defeating two of her rivals today in You’re My Girl and Leave No Trace.
That win came on a sloppy track at Belmont Park, so any change in weather conditions leading up to Friday will hold no fears for this filly. The race itself was run at a strong pace with the opening quarter going in 23.14 secs and the half-mile a solid 46.4 secs in the conditions. You’re My Girl was the speed here and set the fractions with her two main rivals sat behind (Leave No Trace in third and Chocolate Gelato in fifth) waiting to pounce.
As they headed towards the stretch Chocolate Gelato split horses and looked likely to win easily, but You’re My Girl battled back and was only beaten 3/4 of a length.
The Frizette was run over a mile and the extra stretch out in distance to a mile and a sixteenth could well benefit You’re My Girl.
Current morning line odds of 8/1 for Peter Miller’s Tell Me Nolies look generous, so make sure to check out the latest odds at Jazzsports.ag.
This filly made her MSW debut in July when she was unfancied and went off at 7/1 on the boards and was comfortably beaten into the fourth spot, over 5 lengths behind the winner. That run was promising, and since then she has won three on the trot, stretching out in distance each time. She has now won over 6 1/2 furlongs, and 7 furlongs and her most impressive win so far came over today’s distance last time when she won the Grade 2 Chandelier at Santa Anita. She stumbled at the break and was settled in the fifth spot. As they went to the top of the backstretch she made her move and came three wide into the stretch and ran gamely to the wire. She is a definite contender here.
Sabra Tuff who is one of the big outsiders and currently 30/1 on the morning line odds has been well beaten in two recent Grade 1 events and comes up against a previous foe in Wonder Wheel who is likely to be one of the favorites come race day.
Wonder Wheel from the Mark Casse barn is another who won a Grade 1 last time when defeating a couple of today’s rivals in Chop Chop and Raging Sea. What is key about that race, the Alcibiades Stakes is that it was run here at Keeneland over today’s distance. Wonder Wheel broke smartly from gate 1 that day and went gate to wire, but it was an exciting race with Chop Chop breaking slowly from the gate and going down the backstretch she was only eleventh.
Joel Rosario first moved her inside and then outside coming out of the far turn and she closed strongly all the way to the wire and would probably have won in another few strides. Raging Sea was always tracking Wonder Wheel but eventually was beaten a neck and was disqualified from third and placed fourth. Without a doubt the one to take from this race is Chop Chop and she is currently the 4/1 second favorite on the morning line.
Don’t forget, to check out all the latest odds on the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies, then head on over to Jazzsports.ag
We’ve mentioned a number of the leading contenders for the race but what about some of the longshots? Could we see a big-priced outsider upset the likes of Chocolate Gelato and Chop Chop?
American Rockette could be one of the horses that takes a step forward and serves it up the top two in the betting. Bill Mott’s filly has run very well in two recent Grade 1 events when fourth in the Grade 1 Frizette and then fourth again in the 7-furlong Grade 1 Spinaway when closing strongly after missing the gate early.
Looking at The Frizette, she did not seem to handle the sloppy track and underfoot conditions on Friday look to be forecast for fast dirt, and the stretch out to the mile and one-sixteenth looks as though it will suit this daughter of the great American Pharoah. She is a definite contender at big morning line odds of 20/1.
Another longshot who could be in the mix is Atomically who is another for Todd Pletcher. She has no graded stakes form, unlike some of her rivals, but after breaking the maiden tag at Gulfstream Park in September going gate to wire over 7 furlongs, she then stretched out to a mile and sixteenth to take the My Dear Girl Stakes by a rapidly widening six lengths and she falls into the “could be anything” category. It’s a big step up the class ladder for the barn buddy of the favorite, but make no bones about it, this filly has huge potential.
Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Betting Picks
On the balance of form then Chocolate Gelato deserves to be the favorite, but she has not been posting mindblowing performances, and the one that gets the vote in this highly competitive race is CHOP CHOP 4/1, who was so unlucky in the Alcibiades Stakes and will be one of the strongest closers here.
We like that the dirt will be much faster today for American Rockette 20/1 and she is another that will be closing into what is sure to be a fast pace, while
Atomically 12/1 from the Pletcher barn looks totally unexposed and as we said, could be anything.
Don’t forget to check out all the up-to-date odds for the race at Jazzsports.ag where you can place straight bets and exotics on all the Breeders Cup races.
Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Grade 1 – Purse $1,000,000 – 1 Mile – Turf – 2-Year-Old Fillies
Another race for the two-year-old fillies and this one on the inside turf track which at 7 1/2 furlongs is a very tight circuit.
We have fourteen runners here including four raiders from Europe, where father and son Aidan and Joseph O’Brien do battle alongside lady trainer Amy Murphy and Richard Fahey who trains The Platinum Queen and runs in the big sprint race on Saturday.
Kicking off with the European runners and there is no doubting the class of Meditate trained by Aidan O’Brien and she is the current 4/1 morning line favorite. This filly is now 4-6 and her two defeats have come on her last two runs in very competitive Group 1 events. She won her maiden back in April, so it has been a long season for this filly, but she has done nothing but progress right through the season. That could go against her, as could her wide post position in gate 10, but she is undoubtedly classy and her trainer knows what it takes to win at the Breeders Cup, even though he has not been successful in this event.
Of the other European raiders, then Richard Fahey’s Midnight Mile 10/1 is one that could take a huge step forward. She is 2-2 and followed up a win in an ordinary maiden to take a Group 3 on her second start. Coming into a Breeders Cup after just two starts would be tough for any two-year-old, and the fact she is taking this huge step up the class ladder and has been posted very wide in gate 13 means this is a very tough assignment.
So what about team USA? Who will be the ones to step forward and serve it up to the favorite from across the pond?
We have to kick off with Last Call 20/1 who was an impressive winner of the Johnnie Walker Natalma Stakes at Woodbine last time. She was settled two wide at the rear of the field, but as they exited the backstretch, she fanned wide into the 4 lane in the straight and showed a great turn of foot to take up the running inside the eighth pole and held sway well, to win by over a length. She beat two of today’s other runners Cairo Consort and G Laurie, and on that form, has nothing to fear from those two rivals.
At shorter odds for the home team, then Free Look at 5/1 for the lethal combination of Chad Brown and Flavian Prat looks to hold a strong chance. It’s key to note the barn’s record in this race with Brown winning this four times in 2014, 2016, 2017, and 2018.
Free Look is 1-3 and was beaten last time in a falsely run race for the Miss Grillo Stakes where she came up against another of today’s rivals Pleasant Passage 12/1 who went gate to wire. The McGaughey runner is now 2-2 and it’s interesting that Irad Ortiz Jr keeps the mount, and we see no reason why Free Look should turn that form around with her old foe. The Beyer figure of 78 is nothing special and both of these fillies will need to improve stepping up the class ladder.
For the latest odds on the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, then make sure to check out Jazzsports.ag
Of the other home team runners, Delight 6/1 ridden by Luis Saez for Jonathan Thomas is a rapidly improving filly and won over this track and trip last time when taking the Grade 2 Jessamine Stakes. She grabbed the inside rail going around the clubhouse turn and from that point set the pace and bounded clear coming off the home turn with an ever-widening gap in deep stretch. She has now won her last two and could be the one to give Meditate the most to do.
The only negative is the wide post draw, but there are some slower starters in the inside gates and she should at least be able to grab a nice stalking spot if not able to set the speed herself.
Looking at some of the potential runners that could cause the big upset and Spirit Gal 20/1 is a longshot that is having her first run stateside after coming from Ireland where she was 2-4. Her form does not stack up to the O’Brien runners but she is clearly improving fast and her run style suggests she may try and go gate-to-wire here. Her two wins have been on the speed and from a good post draw in gate 7 she could get to the front early. Tactically that would be a good spot around this tight turf track.
Another potential upset candidate is Xigera 8/1 who was fourth (promoted to third) in the Alcibiades Stakes last time but reverts back to the lawn today. Her maiden win came on this surface when she stormed clear in the stretch at Saratoga two back and it would be no surprise to see the Phillip Bauer filly go very close.
Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Betting Predictions
A very competitive affair, but if breaking well enough then the European raider MEDITATE should be too good for this field as the European turn form is that much stronger than the home team.
For the home team. Delight will certainly be a big danger if she can get on the speed and Xigera and Spirit Gal are others who are sure to run well.
At big morning line odds, then Last Call has to be one for bettors looking to bet across the board (Win, Place & Show) as her win at Woodbine was mighty impressive and she looks one that could be added into your exotics (exactas, trifectas and superfectas)
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