Beaumont Stakes Odds & Betting Predictions

Pace makes the race and that will certainly be the case at Keeneland on Sunday, when the feature G2 Beaumont Stakes hosts a clash between front-running fillies Key Of Life and Stonewall Star. On the undercard, the ungraded Palisades supplies a full field of speedballs headed by Breeders’ Cup third Private Creed, who renews rivalry with No Nay Hudson and takes on the intriguing G2 winner Damon’s Mound.


Beaumont Stakes

G2, $400,000, 7f dirt, 3yo fillies, 4.44pm ET

This is the final waystation on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks, but the Beaumont – the headline race at Keeneland on Sunday – offers only ten qualifying points to the winner and has no relevance in that respect, as none of the seven runners have any points anyway so won’t be going to Churchill Downs.

Brad Cox trains Oaks favourite Wet Paint and has the market leader here as well with Key Of Life (evens), who has hit the board in all seven starts and makes her Graded debut after two wins at stakes level. Already twice a winner here over six furlongs, she posted a career-best in a stakes at Oaklawn Park last time over the same distance, going coast-to-coast and stretching away in the closing stages to score by three and a quarter lengths.

She’s never gone seven furlongs but has finished willingly over six and a half and that part of the equation shouldn’t be a concern for bettors.

There could be a pace showdown in store as Stonewall Star (3-1) – also never off the board in seven starts – loves to lead, and careered away on the front end to win by 11 lengths in a seven-furlong stakes at Laurel Park last time. That was her first success away from state-bred territory, in which sphere she won two stakes at Aqueduct when again making all, and she’s moving up in class on a high.

Interpolate (9-2) is also coming off the back of a stakes win over seven furlongs, her victory coming over a short field at Aqueduct when she clinched her stakes breakthrough by a widening two and a half lengths. This is a tougher test but she’s heading in the right direction.

This represents class relief for Opus Forty Two (8-1) after her fourth in the mile stakes at Tampa Bay Downs in which champion juvenile filly Wonder Wheel was runner-up and G1-placed Julia Shining third. She was well beaten, but had previously won a seven-furlong stakes at the same track and wears blinkers for the first time today, which may well move her up.

The G3 Pocahontas one-two Fun And Feisty (20-1) and Shoplifter (20-1) meet again after being separated by three and a half lengths in that mile-sixteenth heat at Churchill Downs in September. Bigger things may have been expected for Fun And Feisty after that, but she is winless in three since then and showed nothing at all when sixth in a mile stakes at Laurel Park last time. Inconsistency is Shoplifter’s bugbear – she has never run two races alike and only has a maiden victory on her record.

Turfway Park maiden winner She’s On The Rocks (10-1) stretches out to seven furlongs for the first time and makes her main-track debut, which gives her questions to answer in a race in which others have already passed the test.

Beaumont Stakes Odds & Betting Pick

HorseJockeyOdds by Jazzsports
ShoplifterCorey J. Lanerie+2000
She’s On the RocksJohn McKee+1000
Stonewall StarLuis Saez+300
InterpolateIrad Ortiz, Jr+450
Fun and FeistyBrian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.+2000
Opus Forty TwoTyler Gaffalione+800
Key of LifeFlavien Prat+100

This could be a burn-up and that will suit the front-running STONEWALL STAR, who comes here off an 11-length stakes win and looks ready to move up in grade.

Palisades Stakes

Ungraded, $250,000, 5 1/2f turf, 3yo, 4.12pm ET

If speed is key to the Beaumont then it’s absolutely fundamental to the Palisades, a blink-and-you-miss-it headlong charge with a full field to add to the puzzle facing bettors.

Everywhere you look there are contenders, with Private Creed (4-1) a narrow morning-line choice based on his excellent third in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint over course and distance, beaten a length and a quarter by two Brits when probably lacking a little quality at the finish.

Two starts this year over a mile and more (one on dirt) didn’t pay off, but he’s back where he belongs now, and rallied strongly to win a stakes over course and distance in October with No Nay Hudson (9-2) beaten a length and three-quarters into third.

No Wesley Ward sprinter can be overlooked, especially here, but No Nay Hudson has come up short in four attempts at this level – runner-up over six at Aqueduct last time, with Chiringo (20-1) fourth, beaten two and a half lengths – and it seems like everything will have to go perfectly for him to get his head in front.

It’s been a while since we saw Damon’s Mound (6-1), who gave up his unbeaten record with a flat display in the mile-sixteenth G3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs in September. He had a tall reputation before that, enhanced by an easy score in the short-field G2 Saratoga Special over six and a half furlongs, and although this distance and the layoff aren’t positives, he is a very interesting contender.

Jorge Delgado puts two from the same owner in the gate, with the British import Crispy Cat (8-1) coming off a stakes win at Gulfstream Park over five furlongs, when he was on the lead much of the way and beat the rallying Golden Nugget (12-1) by a comfortable length and a half. He was G2-placed in Britain and makes more appeal than barnmate New York Thunder (8-1), unbeaten in two at Gulfstream over five furlongs and making his stakes debut today.

Gaslight Dancer (8-1) is the pick of the Mike Maker pair, cutting right back after ending his 2022 campaign with a no-show sixth as rank outsider in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf here over a mile. His maiden win came at seven furlongs and this is new for him, while barnmate Fadethenoise (20-1) has been on the sidelines since August, when he finished sixth in a stakes at Saratoga over this distance in which No Nay Hudson and Private Creed ran two-three.

Woodbine form doesn’t often stack up below the border and Bushido (5-1) is likely to need plenty more than he showed when winning a five-furlong stakes there in October.

Palisades Stakes Odds & Betting Predictions

HorseJockeyOdds by Jazzsports
Two of a KindJulien R. Leparoux+2000
ChiringoIrad Ortiz, Jr.+2000
FadethenoiseLanfranco Dettori+2000
Crispy Cat (GB)Paco Lopez+800
Gaslight DancerTyler Gaffalione+800
Private CreedJoel Rosario+400
BushidoLuis Saez+500
No Nay Hudson (IRE)John R. Velazquez+450
Storm DaddyMalcolm Franklin+3000
Golden NuggetFlavien Prat+1200
New York ThunderJose E. Morelos+800
Damon’s MoundGabriel Saez+600
OlazabalFlorent Geroux+800

This is substantial class relief for PRIVATE CREED, who will be suited by cutting back in distance and has already turned in two strong performances at this track.

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