Breeders Cup Distaff Future Book

The battle for the lead will be almost as interesting as the battle at the finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff, a race full of previous gate-to-wire winners. The streaking trio Idiomatic, Randomized and Adare Manor set a high standard in a very strong edition of the race, with Godolphin pair Pretty Mischievous and Wet Paint and the tough cookie Clairiere all major players in what shapes up to be a thriller. Here’s our 2023 Breeders Cup Distaff Future Book Preview!

Breeders Cup Odds

Breeders Cup Distaff Future Book

G1, $2m, 1m 1f dirt, 3yo+ females, Santa Anita, Saturday 2.10pm PT

Something has to give in the Distaff, as three of the main protagonists bring long winning streaks to the table for a race that is almost as full of G1 winners – eight of the 11 runners – as the Turf. Also, all signs point to a congested pace scenario, with plenty of these looking for the lead, so something will have to give there too.

Brad Cox puts three in the gate but that might be overkill as the morning-line gives his Idiomatic (5-2) a favorite’s chance, and it is hard to argue. At this time last year Idiomatic was running in allowances at Turfway Park, but this huge, tall filly has been transformed in 2023 and comes here looking for a five-timer after two G1 wins.

She seems to mesmerize her opponents into giving her an easy lead – that is what happened in the 2023 G1 Personal Ensign at Saratoga over a mile-eighth (four lengths) and in the 2023 G1 Spinster over a mile-eighth at Keeneland. She twelved them to death and came home four and a half lengths clear of Le Da Vida (20-1), who was running arguably her best race since importing from Chile.

Is it possible that they will let Idiomatic get away with it again? That seems unlikely, so she may have to show another side of herself. Class is permanent, though.

Her second-string barnmate Wet Paint (10-1) is the opposite, preferring to wait and come very late, tactics that worked out in the mile-eighth 2023 G1 CCA Oaks at Saratoga when she produced a buzzer-beating finish to get there by a neck. The short stretch here does not lend itself to that method.

Chad Brown has never won a Distaff but loads both barrels and his best chance lies with Randomized (6-1), who is sitting on a three-streak that puts the hex on a couple of today’s rivals.

She too went coast-to-coast – that will give Idiomatic something to think about – in the 2023 G1 Alabama at Saratoga over a mile-eighth, drawing off to beat Wet Paint by four lengths, and played the same game when rolling Cox’s third-string A Mo Reay (20-1) flat in the 2023 G2 Beldame at Aqueduct, again over a mile-eighth, when the winning margin was three and three-quarter lengths.

With just six races under her belt, there is scope for improvement for Randomized, although a speed duel would simply soften up her and Idiomatic. She is preferred to barnmate Search Results (5-1) – same owner too – who is another pace angle, and went gate-to-wire in the 2023 G3 Locust Grove at Churchill Downs over a mile-sixteenth, hosing her rivals by three and a quarter lengths with Le Da Vida and A Mo Reay well back in fifth and sixth respectively.

Class is the issue again, as Randomized has a little more of it than Search Results, who was sixth in this race 12 months ago and has not improved since. The front end will be a tight spot if they all go from the gate . . .

Home sweet home for Manor

. . . which leads us to the other filly bringing a long winning streak into the race. Adare Manor (4-1) has won her last five races, four of them at this circuit, and did it from the front last time in the 2023 G2 Zenyatta here over a mile-sixteenth, blitzing a short field and pulling five and a quarter lengths clear of Desert Dawn (20-1) in what was a pretty uncompetitive contest.

On her previous start, Adare Manor broke through the G1 glass ceiling when again accounting for runner-up Desert Dawn, this time stalking the pace in the 2023 G1 Clement L. Hirsch at Del Mar over a mile-sixteenth until surging late to get the money by a length, and she is certainly the best in the west.

That may not mean a huge amount, though, as the talent pool is pretty shallow in California in this division, and Adare Manor will have to find extra to stretch that streak to six. She will probably fight shy of the inevitable duel to lead, as stalking worked for her at Del Mar.

If there was a prize for versatility it would go to Pretty Mischievous (8-1), who has won G1s at three distances this year. She began her spree when grinding out the glory by a neck in the 2023 G1 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs over a mile-eighth, with Wet Paint – same ownership – three lengths back in fourth.

Pretty Mischievous then cut back to a mile-sixteenth to post another game display in the 2023 G1 Acorn at Belmont Park, prevailing by a head with Randomized – her only defeat of 2023 – a well-beaten sixth. That preceded a very fortunate success in the seven-furlong 2023 G1 Test at Saratoga when she would have been second but for a tragic accident befalling the clear leader.

She coughed up her streak last time when runner-up in the 2023 G1 Cotillion on a sloppy track at Parx, beaten a half-length with the disappointing Hoosier Philly (20-1) four and three-quarter lengths further back in fourth. This race looks perfect for a closer and it should suit her persistent approach.

It is the third time around for Clairiere (4-1), who was fourth in this race in 2021 and third last year, beaten two noses. She began the year with two G1 wins but ran a dreadful race behind Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign last time, beaten more than 17 lengths into fifth – her best chance of winning this may have gone, although her rallying tactics could help her hit the board again.

Breeders’ Cup Distaff Prediction

With so many of the major players running their best races on the lead, this is set up for a closer and Kentucky Oaks winner PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS fits the bill. She does her best work late and can take advantage of any pace meltdown.

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