Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Odds & Betting Picks

There are several big players taking a perfect record into the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Santa Anita on Friday, notably the odds-on favorite Tamara, who is the hype horse of the whole weekend after a dazzling G1 score last time. Fellow G1 winners Candied and Just FYI will make sure she does not have everything her own way, but it will be a major upset if Tamara does not wake up the following morning with her unbeaten record still intact. Check here the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Odds & Betting Picks by Jazzsports.

Breeders Cup Odds

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Odds

G1, $2m, 1m 1/16 dirt, 2yo fillies, Santa Anita, Friday 2.40pm PT

The concept of taking short odds about an inexperienced two-year-old is not guaranteed to appeal to all bettors, but plenty will be getting on board the latest sensation to hit California despite her status as a heavy, heavy chalk for the Juvenile Fillies.

The expectation surrounding the unbeaten Tamara (4-5) is intense because she ticks the boxes on several metrics, the most important being her majestic performance to land the 2023 G1 Del Mar Debutante over seven furlongs when she rolled the opposition flat and streaked in by six and three-quarter lengths.

She was brilliant and could have won by further but for being wrapped up in mid-stretch by a jockey sitting motionless in the saddle. She stretches out now but that is not likely to be an issue, and there is no way around it, if she does this sort of thing again she will be in the winner’s circle.

The form has been boosted by those toiling in behind, and her pedigree has ‘Breeders’ Cup winner’ written through it like a stick of seaside rock. Her outstanding dam Beholder won this race in 2012 before adding two more BC wins to her resume, and trainer Richard Mandella has won the Juvenile Fillies three times.

The only point that raises a note of caution is Tamara’s odds – we have all seen supposed sure things get beat and the high-octane competition at the BC means this is no simple task. That should not deflect from the likelihood of her victory, though, being simply a caveat that there are no certainties in racing.

The Debutante fourth Chatalas (8-1) came back four weeks later to win the 2023 G2 Chandelier over the same course and distance as the Juvenile Fillies, rolling coast-to-coast for a dominant score by a length and a half over the rallying Scalable (20-1), who is a two-race maiden.

Going longer clearly brought more out of Chatalas, and she seemed happy on the lead, but she was beaten almost 13 lengths by Tamara in the Debutante and it is a big leap of faith to suggest she might be able to turn that sort of table on the chalk.

FYI, there are other contenders

Tamara is not the only two-for-two filly in this race, as there are two other potentially top-class runners in the mix who built on their maiden score by taking down a G1 contest next time out. Moreover, her expected short odds mean that her rivals could be seen as overlays in comparison.

Todd Pletcher has a ton of headline contenders across the weekend, but has never won the Juvenile Fillies and puts three in the gate in a bid to snap that losing streak – one of them, the third-string Scalable, has been mentioned earlier.

By far the most promising of the Pletcher trio is Candied (4-1), who caused a mild upset when winning the 2023 G1 Alcibiades at Keeneland over a mile-sixteenth. She showed that she relished a battle when seeing off the persistent runner-up to get the dollars by a length, and although the place horse has been beaten since there were excuses for that defeat, so Candied should not be marked down for that.

There were five and three-quarter lengths further back to Alys Beach (30-1) in third, and another three and a half back to 2023 G1 Spinaway winner Brightwork (12-1) in fifth, giving up her four-race unbeaten streak with a lacklustre effort that hinted at a lack of stamina. All this makes Candied a big player here.

So is fellow two-for-two merchant Just FYI (8-1), who nailed her own G1 when taking down the 2023 Frizette on a sloppy track at Aqueduct over a mile, although it was certainly not the best G1 ever seen.

There is no quibble over the performance, though, as Just FYI grabbed the race by the scruff of the neck and drew off to win by three and three-quarter lengths, showing improvement for stretching out. Her resolutely old-school trainer is renowned for bringing his horses to a peak on the big day.

Back in third in the Frizette, keeping on at the one pace to be beaten another half-length, was Life Talk (20-1), probably the second-string to Pletcher’s bow but almost certainly a fair way behind Candied.

The other unbeaten filly here is Jody’s Pride (15-1), who is also two-for-two after winning a six-furlong stakes at Aqueduct when she cleared away to beat ordinary opposition by three and a quarter lengths. She stretches right out here and that is a mild concern, while the major class hike adds to the potential negatives.

In the same boat is Omaha Girl (30-1), who led every step of the way to win minor stakes over the Monmouth Park mile, pushing on to win by two and a half lengths in a slow time. The form is a long way from what is required to even hit the board in a race such as this.

It is very hard to like the chance of Esprit Enchante (20-1), who scrambled home by a bare nose when breaking her maiden here over six and a half furlongs, with three-race maiden Where’s My Ring (30-1) a neck back in third, while Accommodate Eva (30-1) is another shoot-for-the-moon longshot coming off a maiden score, hers over seven furlongs at Keeneland when she went gate-to-wire to beat a debutante by two and a half lengths. 

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Prediction

Breeders’ Cup races are incredibly competitive but it is still very hard to look away from the dazzling TAMARA, who cruised to a wide-margin victory in a well-contested G1 last time and has almost limitless scope for further improvement.

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