Commonwealth Turf Stakes Odds & Racing Picks

Churchill Downs on Sunday sees a full field of twelve runners going to the gate at 5.48 PM EST for the 2023 Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf Stakes which is run over a mile and a sixteenth

KENTUCKY DERBY ODDS

It sees two progressive colts in Northern Invader 3/1 and Runaway Storm 7/2 locking fetlocks for the lion’s share of this $300k purse.

Commonwealth Turf Stakes

Grade 3 – Purse $300,000 – 1 mile 1/16 – Turf – 3-Year-Olds

Northern Invader 3/1 is the marginal chalk here and the bettors probably have that right, after this one took a class drop last time when taking the 2023 Gio Ponti Stakes.

There was no surprise to that win, although he did show different tactics going to the front at the clubhouse turn before leading the rest of the way.

Two back he had finished second in the 2023 Grade 2 Secretariat Stakes and these foes are probably a lesser bunch.

His biggest rival on paper looks to be the Ethan West trained Runaway Storm 7/2 who has now won three of his five career starts, with the last of those being his graded stakes maiden breaker when winning the 2023 Grade 3 Bryan Station Stakes by a head.

That win was over a mile and there is no doubt he is better over further, so the extra sixteenth gives plenty of upside. He’ll need to show a jolt of improvement but that is not out of the question, and he’ll be a deep closer here.

One runner that merits close inspection is Ohana Honor 6/1 who was just a length behind Northen Invader last time when putting in a strong closing effort.

He looked like a horse who would appreciate stretching out over a route trip and he had won his previous two before that effort.

If he can find a little more improvement then he has a fine chance of hitting the board.

Another with solid chances across the board is the Bryan Lynch-trained Anglophile 12/1 who was well beaten last time when running on the slop.

That run can be ignored as all his best form has been on a firm turf surface and two back he won the $1,000,000 2023 Dueling Grounds Derby at Kentucky Downs, his first career graded stakes success.

That win came over a mile and five sixteenths so the cutback in distance is a negative with all his best turf runs coming over further. However, he will be the strongest closer here and looks good value on the morning line odds.

Commonwealth Turf Stakes Odds & Racing Picks

HorseJockeyHorse Racing Odds by Jazzsports
Northern InvaderJose L. Ortiz+300
Smokey MandateJames Graham+800
AnglophileDeclan Cannon+1200
WorthingtonJulien R. Leparoux+2000
Runaway StormColby J. Hernandez+350
Ohana HonorKendrick Carmouche+600
Irish AcesTyler Gaffalione+800
Bal a KazooEduardo E. Perez+2000
GiganteLuan Machado+1000
Winters LionJareth Loveberry+2000
SantoriniAlex Achard+1000
Lincoln HighwayLuis Saez+1200

This race looks sure to be run at a strong pace and with a strong close in his armory, Anglophile looks a good bet across the board now back on his favored surface.

The main vote goes to NORTHERN INVADER who is still very unexposed and very progressive and he may well go gate to wire here.

Runaway Storm, Ohana Honor, and Santorini are others who should be battling for a slice.

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