Fleur de Lis Odds, Contenders & Betting Prediction

The Stephen Foster undercard at Ellis Park on Saturday has Brad Cox’s name all over it, with the trainer saddling the heavy chalk in both Graded stakes. A Mo Reay bids to go four-for-five for Cox in the G2 Fleur De Lis against old rival Pauline’s Pearl, while the veteran Set Piece is a warm order to repeat his victory of two years ago in the G2 Wise Dan on the lawn.

Breeders Cup Odds

Fleur De Lis Stakes

G2, $400,000, 1m 1f dirt, 4yo+ females, 3.22pm CT

Brad Cox could be heading for a kingpin day at Ellis Park on Saturday, as the trainer of G1 Stephen Foster big-hitter West Will Power also dominates the undercard with strong favourites, including in the distaff feature Fleur De Lis.

Cox won the race 12 months ago with Shedaresthedevil and will fancy his chances of a repeat with A Mo Reay (8-5), who has gone from strength to strength since joining the barn last fall. She put together a hat-trick culminating in her first top-level success in the G1 Beholder Mile at Santa Anita in March, rallying bravely to get home by a head as the camera clicked, and may have improved on that effort next time despite finishing off the board.

The G1 La Troienne at Churchill Downs over a mile-sixteenth was a hot contest and A Mo Reay ran a big race to be fourth, given a lot to do but finishing off well to be two and a quarter lengths behind the winner, with Pauline’s Pearl (3-1) four and three-quarter lengths back in sixth and Soul Of An Angel (30-1) a length away in seventh. A Mo Reay stretches out for the first time now but the extra yardage doesn’t look a negative.

Pauline’s Pearl has finished well behind A Mo Reay on her last two starts and has lost a little of her sizzle since winning last year’s La Troienne. She was third in this race a year ago and her back-class earns her respect, but her position as main market rival to A Mo Reay simply underlines that filly’s credentials.

It has been a long time between drinks for Bellamore (5-1), who has lost seven straight and has never won a stakes, and a better play may be Heartyconstitution (5-1), who brings a three-streak to the table topped by her stakes breakthrough at Penn National over a mile-sixteenth, when she was 1-10 to beat nothing much and did it very comfortably.

That was on the lawn, but her previous victory came on the main track in a mile allowance at Churchill Downs, with Music Street (30-1) beaten six lengths into seventh, and her upward trend could have an impact here.

There are similar possibilities about Royal Take Charge (6-1), who makes her stakes debut after breaking a mile-eighth allowance field apart at Churchill Downs, romping by six and three-quarter lengths with Music Street third. She has the scope to move up with just four runs under her belt and is preferred to Moon Swag (6-1), who won a stakes at the Fair Grounds last Christmas but hasn’t kicked on in 2023, finishing off the board at Graded level in her last three starts.

Fleur de Lis Odds & Betting Pick

There may be less about this race than meets the eye, and G1 winner A MO REAY can parlay her progressive nature plus class relief into another big score.

HorseJockeyHorse Racing Odds by Jazzsports
BellamoreMartin Garcia+500
Moon SwagLuis Saez+600
Royal Take ChargeCristian A. Torres+600
Soul of an AngelLuis R. Reyes+3000
Pauline’s PearlJoel Rosario+300
A Mo ReayFlavien Prat+160
HeartyconstitutionTyler Gaffalione+500
Music StreetJulien R. Leparoux+3000

Wise Dan Stakes

G2, $400,000, 1m 1/16 turf, 4yo+, 3.55pm CT

Cox has an even tighter grip on the Wise Dan, a race he has won in three of its last four runnings – it wasn’t on the calendar last year – and with the veteran Set Piece (4-5) in 2021, who will be a heavy favourite to repeat the dose.

The durable seven-year-old isn’t quite up to G1 company but is never that far away when the heat is turned down a notch, and he had his game-day face on last time when winning the G3 Arlington over a mile-sixteenth at Churchill Downs four weeks ago.

He justified odds-on billing with a no-nonsense score, driving on to beat long-time leader Get Smokin (5-1) by a length, with longshot Harlan Estate (10-1) rallying for third, three-quarters of a length back. A photocopy of that performance would make him very tough to beat, although the enforced racetrack switch to Ellis Park might be something to consider, as he’s five-for-seven under the twin spires and evidently gives his best there.

That was Get Smokin’s best showing for a good while and he’ll be out there on the lead as usual trying to make it stick, and it was probably a career-best for Harlan Estate too, although he has never won at stakes level and will need to move right up again to have prospects of changing that.

Morning-line contender Camp Hope (5-1) suffers greatly from inconsistency, and hit the board for the first time in four starts when taking care of several of these in a mile allowance at Churchill Downs a month ago.

On his day he can run, and that day didn’t need to be at full stretch to score, easing two and a quarter lengths clear of the rallying Hozier (15-1) in third, with Play Action Pass (12-1) a no-kick fifth, beaten a further neck and nose on his first start for seven months, and Stitched (20-1) finishing ninth of ten. Camp Hope very rarely puts two good races together, though, which doesn’t bode well.

Fellow Churchill Downs mile allowance winner Kittansett (12-1) only had three horses to beat that day and wasn’t unduly impressive when squeaking home by a head. He’s fairly closely matched with Tut’s Revenge (20-1), who beat him a length and a quarter in a mile stakes here last summer when they ran three-four – but Tut’s Revenge is riding an 11-race losing streak and neither make much appeal even for exotics.

Irish import Cowboy Justice (20-1) was no great shakes back in the old country and hasn’t done anything in two starts Stateside to suggest anything has changed.

Wise Dan Stakes Odds & Betting Prediction

He holds his form very well and SET PIECE is a cut above these – a repeat of his recent G3 win should be enough to take this race for the second time.

HorseJockeyHorse Racing Odds by Jazzsports
Harlan EstateDeclan Cannon+1000
Tut’s RevengeFrancisco Arrieta+2000
Camp HopeBrian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.+500
Get SmokinRicardo Santana, Jr.+500
Play Action PassTyler Gaffalione+1200
KittansettCristian A. Torres+1200
Cowboy Justice (GB)James Graham+2000
Set Piece (GB)Florent Geroux-125
StitchedMarcelino Pedroza, Jr.+2000
HozierJulien R. Leparoux+1500

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