Grand Prix de Paris Odds & More Longchamp Graded Races

A Friday evening in summery Paris is the tempting prospect here with Longchamp staging the historic and hugely competitive G1 Grand Prix de Paris, in which G1-winning filly Soul Sister takes on G1 Irish Derby runner-up Adelaide River and progressive local hope Feed The Flame. On the undercard, the marathon runners Sober and The Good Man renew rivalry in the G2 Prix Maurice de Nieuil, while some promising fillies get their chance in a short field for the G2 Prix de Malleret.

Breeders Cup Odds

Grand Prix de Paris

G1, 600,000 euro, 1m 4f turf, 3yo, 2.52pm ET

The historic Grand Prix de Paris is always run on France’s national day – Bastille Day – whatever day of the week it falls on, and this year it headlines the Friday evening card at Longchamp, the premier Paris racetrack located a mile or so from the Eiffel Tower.

This year’s edition has plenty of angles to study, with contenders from France, Britain and Ireland and a filly strongly fancied to beat the colts. The ground is officially soft, although it may dry slightly by post-time.

No filly has won this race since 1949 but Soul Sister has an excellent chance of breaking that long drought, having made dramatic improvement in her last two starts. She cruised by four lengths in the 2023 G3 Musidora at York in May and then stretched out to a mile and a half to win the classic G1 Oaks at Epsom six weeks ago, making her stamina count in a comfortable victory by a length and three-quarters.

Taking on the boys obviously makes this a tough test, but Soul Sister is fresh, a solid stayer and has form on soft ground, although she does seem to prefer a faster surface.

The best of the home team is the lightly raced Feed The Flame, who only made his debut in April. He won his maiden and a minor contest at this track before going right in at the deep end for the 2023 G1 Jockey-Club (French Derby) over a mile and five-sixteenths on good ground at Chantilly, when he was given a lot to do and couldn’t sustain his challenge, beaten six and three-quarter lengths into fourth with the longshot Winter Pudding a long way last of the 11 runners.

The step up in distance and return to soft ground are both positives and Feed The Flame is entitled to make further improvement given his inexperience. On his previous start he had been a dominant winner from First Minister, and that colt made the form look good when winning the 2023 G3 Hocquart here over a mile and three furlongs next time out, drawing off to score by a length and a half with Silawi fading in the closing stages to be fifth, beaten three and three-quarter lengths.

First Minister is trained by the great Andre Fabre, who has won this race a record 13 times (but not since 2014), and is bred to go long, being by Galileo out of a half-sister to Medaglia D’Oro.

The Irish challenge is a two-pronged attack from Aidan O’Brien, who has won this race three times in the last five years and brings the second and fourth from the 2023 G1 Irish Derby at The Curragh on a swift 12-day turnaround.

Adelaide River – the first choice on jockey bookings – ran a clear career-best when trying to make all but run down by barnmate Auguste Rodin and beaten a length and a half, with Peking Opera staying on late but never a factor in fourth, beaten a further seven and three-quarter lengths.

The issue with Adelaide River is that he is not one of life’s winners, going zero-for-six since winning his maiden on debut, but both distance and ground are right up his alley today and another front-running ride could make him a major danger, as French races are generally run at a dawdle before sprinting.

Distance and ground are also ideal for Rubis Vendome, who won the 2023 G3 Lys at Chantilly by three-quarters of a length from Silawi, but class is the sticking point and he’ll need another career-best just to get in the mix.

Grand Prix de Paris Odds & Betting Pick

HorseJockeyHorse Racing Odds by Jazzsports
Feed The FlameCristian Demuro+450
Rubis VendomeAndrea Atzeni+2000
Winter Pudding Stephane Pasquier+4000
Adelaide RiverRyan Moore+500
Peking OperaTom Marquand+3300
First MinisterBauyrzhan Murzabayer+750
SilawiMaxime Guyon+5000
Soul SisterKieran Shoemark+125

A very open race but FEED THE FLAME has scope to improve further from his recent G1 fourth and both the longer distance and softer ground will suit.

Prix de Malleret

G2, 130,000 euro, 1m 4f turf, 3yo fillies, 2.12pm ET

Only a short field for the Malleret, with two maidens among the five runners, and this contest for late-blooming staying fillies doesn’t look as competitive this year as it has in previous runnings.

It could be booked for export, as the British filly Crack Of Light has shown improvement after switching to the lawn from a synthetic surface, running well in a ten-furlong Newbury stakes in May behind a filly who went on to win a G2 at Royal Ascot next time out, before crossing the Channel to make her stakes breakthrough over course and distance last month.

She took the race by the scruff of the neck a long way out and held on well under a vigorous ride to maintain her advantage all the way to the line, getting home by a neck with stakes debutante Yorokobi a length and a quarter back in third.

Crack Of Light will have learned plenty from that and her barn is in hot form, although this is her first try on soft ground. Yorokobi is a three-race maiden but showed up well there and the return to soft ground could move her up again.

The ground can’t be soft enough for Higgle, whose two wins have come in deep mud – one of them at this distance – and who wasn’t suited by the good ground at Chantilly when fourth, beaten ten lengths, in the 2023 G3 Royaumont last month. She looked slow there, but the greater test of speed wasn’t ideal and she’s a grinder who’ll be suited by today’s conditions.

Rue Boissonade was beaten about an inch when third in a minor event over course and distance in May and conditions are in her favour, and although she’ll obviously need to step up this isn’t the toughest place to make her stakes debut. The two-race maiden Andraste stretches out for the first time after hitting the board on both starts in the minor leagues, and can’t be ruled out given the weakish look to this race.

Prix de Malleret Odds & Betting Prediction

HorseJockeyHorse Racing Odds by Jazzsports
AndrasteStephane Pasquier+1600
YorokobiCristian Demuro+333
Rue BoissonadeGerald Mosse+400
Crack Of LightTom Marquand+100
HiggleMaxime Guyon+700

It’s likely that course-and-distance winner CRACK OF LIGHT will improve again, and it’s worth taking a chance that she’ll cope with the soft ground.

Prix Maurice de Nieuil

G2, 130,000 euro, 1m 6f turf, 4yo+, 3.25pm ET

There are several familiar faces in the Maurice de Nieuil and a couple of new shooters on the route scene, and in a contest that could turn into a war of attrition the ability to see out the distance is paramount.

Andre Fabre has trained a record nine winners of this race and relies on the upwardly mobile Sober, who made his stakes breakthrough last time out in the 2023 G2 Vicomtesse Vigier here over a mile and seven and a half furlongs, needing every yard of the marathon distance to get his head in front.

He rallied like a champ to run down long-time leader The Good Man and grab the money by a short neck, and is just the type of progressive stayer that his trainer does well with. The cutback is unlikely to be an issue.

The Good Man was third in this race in 2022 and invariably puts in a good shift, but a lifetime count of four-for-26 hasn’t made him a bettors’ buddy and it would be no great shock to see him come up just short again.

The old-timer Skazino has begun the inevitable decline but is still capable of a good show, and won a stakes in the mud at Saint-Cloud over a mile and seven furlongs last time. At his best he would be a threat but his best days are probably behind him.

That isn’t the case for British tourist River Of Stars, a filly taking on the boys after producing a career-best on her first start of 2023, when she showed plenty of guts to get up in the last few jumps and win the mile and three-quarters G3 Bronte Cup at York by a short head. That proved her stamina for today’s test but the soft ground is a big question mark.

Her compatriot Roberto Escobarr is also unlikely to be suited by conditions, given that he ran arguably a career-best two starts ago on good ground when winning the 2023 G3 Henry II at Sandown over two miles. Moreover, he comes off a very poor effort last time and others make more appeal.

Anyone who reads that Gagarin’s Moon won by 30 lengths over course and distance last time will want to keep him on-side, but it was a poor race and the other jockeys allowed him to build up a massive lead in slightly dubious circumstances. That won’t happen again, while recent course winner Palaimon has a huge class gap to bridge and has never looked the type for this level.

Prix Maurice de Nieuil Odds & Betting Pick

HorseJockeyHorse Racing Odds by Jazzsports
SoberMaxime Guyon+333
SkazinoCristian Demuro+350
Roberto EscobarrTom Marquand+750
The Good ManAlexis Pouchin+300
PalaimonMlle Marie Velon+3300
Gagarin’s MoonSylvain Ruis+2500
River Of StarsTheo Bachelot+275

There are question marks over several of these, but strong stayer SOBER is on the up-and-up and can build on his stakes breakthrough last time.

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