Can Maximum Impact bounce back from a poor run at Royal Ascot and show that run was all wrong to prove the previous two runs were not a fluke? Here the July Stakes, Princess Of Wales Stakes & Bahrain Trophy Stakes Betting Preview!
July Stakes
Grade 2 – Purse $127,000 – 6 furlongs – Turf – 2-Year-Olds – Colts & Geldings
Plenty of unexposed 2-year-olds here and it will be interesting to see if Alice Haynes Maximum Impact can make amends for an underperformance at Royal Ascot.
The Alice Haynes trained Maximum Impact finished last of twenty-three runners, and that was not his form, as he had won his previous two starts, breaking the maiden tag the first time at Leicester before winning next time at Ascot against winners. The turf at Royal Ascot was very fast, and that could be a legitimate excuse for his poor run. Genuine good turf is what he wants, so make sure to check ground conditions before placing any bets. The stretch-out in distance also offers some upside.
A huge player here is the Richard Fahey inmate Malc, who ran second in the G2 2023 Norfolk Stakes at odds of 66/1, and that was no fluke. That was only his second career start after breaking the maiden tag the first time in a strong-looking novice event at Carlisle, and there is plenty of room for improvement.
Plenty of first-time maiden winners stepping up the class ladder here, and a couple to note from strong barns are Chief Mankato 6/1 and Lake Forest.
Chief Mankato from the Charlie Hills barn won first time at Windsor and although he was a double-figure price on the boards, there was support late on for him. He missed the break and ran green but closed strongly in the final furlong. He’ll know his job better today and the barn is firing in plenty of two-year-old winners.
Lake Forest from the William Haggas barn is one who made a very strong impression on debut at Haydock, taking a novice event by nearly three lengths and in the process beating a horse that has since come out and hit the winners circle, so the form is strong and he is another that will be closing strongly.
Of the longshots, we could see Thunder Blue try and go gate to wire, and he would be one to include in exotics after finishing fifth in the Grade 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot, that, after being badly impeded and meeting traffic problems a furlong from the wire.
July Stakes Odds & Betting Pick
| Horse | Jockey | Horse Racing Odds by Jazzsports |
| Purosangue | Ray Dowson | +275 |
| Malc | Oisin Orr | +350 |
| Mountain Bear | Ryan Moore | +600 |
| Chief Mankato | William Buick | +800 |
| Lake Forest | Tom Marquand | +800 |
| Thunder Blue | Kevin Stott | +1600 |
| Jasour | Jim Crowley | +2000 |
| Maximum Impact | David Egan | +2500 |
| Toca Madera | Sean Levey | +4000 |
MAXIMUM IMPACT’S run at Royal Ascot was too bad to be true and he is the selection if the ground is good or softer.
Malc and Lake Forest are strong dangers in what looks like a very competitive race.
Meanwhile, don’t discount Thunder Blue who showed lots of speed at Royal Ascot and could be viewed as unlucky after meeting severe traffic problems a furlong from the finish.
Princess Of Wales Stakes
Grade 2 – Purse $158,000 – 1 mile 4 furlongs – Turf – 4-Year-Olds and Up
Can Adayar take advantage of the class relief and show his proven class to take yet another graded stakes race for the powerful Godolphin team?
Just four runners go to post for this Grade 2 and it has a very lopsided race make-up with Adayar 4/9 the strong chalk to beat his other three rivals.
He was last seen when finishing third in the Grade 1 Prince Of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot behind two top-class horses, and that form on its own should be plenty good enough against these foes.
Before that run, he had easily taken the Grade 3 Gordon Richards Stakes at Newmarket by two and a half lengths over a mile and a quarter and this stretch-out in distance looks to add plenty of upside to his chances seeing as he was fourth of fourteen runners at Longchamp in the 2021 running of the Grade 1 Prix De L’Arc de Triomphe on soft ground. He clearly looks a class above his rivals.
The biggest challenge looks sure to come from the year younger Israr who finished third of nineteen in a Grade 2 handicap at Royal Ascot in 2022 but has taken his form to a new level without winning this season.
He has finished runner-up in both starts this season. First up in the Grade 3 Aston Park Sakes when beaten just a short head, and then going on to be beaten by leading stayer Quickthron in the Listed Ebor Grand Cup Stakes. He needs to find a good jolt of improvement to beat the chalk but he is improving. Will it be a third runner-up spot on the spin?
The other two in the field look outclassed with the top one and barn buddy of the chalk Global Storm having to give weight away all around. He is a good horse in his own right and was third in the Grade 2 Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket last time. However, that leaves him plenty to find with his barn buddy and he looks booked for the third spot.
Grand Alliance is the final runner but he is outclassed and looks to be running for fourth place prize money.
Princess Of Wales Stakes Odds & Betting Prediction
| Horse | Jockey | Horse Racing Odds by Jazzsports |
| Adayar | William Buick | -175 |
| Israr | Jim Crowley | +350 |
| Global Storm | James Doyle | +900 |
| Gran Alliance | Ryan Moore | +1400 |
This race is all about ADAYAR, and he should get a nice lead into the race by the longshot Grand Alliance and is going to be very difficult to beat.
Israr looks to be his most serious rival but has 10 lbs to find on official figures, and second looks the best he can achieve and he’ll be battling for that spot with Global Storm.
Grand Alliance looks outclassed.
Bahrain Trophy Stakes
Grade 3 – Purse $253,000 – 1 mile 5 furlongs – Turf – 3-Year-Olds
Can Castle Way continue his progressive profile and go back to back in 2023 and take his first career graded stakes success?
Another small field here with 6 runners going to post at 8.50 am EST and it is the Andrew Balding inmate Saint George who is the early morning line chalk.
He was restricted to one run as a two-year-old where he showed promise but the patience of the handler has been rewarded. He broke the maiden tag at the third time of asking at Southwell and was then stepped up the class ladder first time against winners to take a Class 2 Handicap at Doncaster in June.
He then followed that with an even better run in the Grade 2 Queens Vase at Royal Ascot, only giving way to the heavily backed chalk Gregory. That was a huge step forward from previous runs and that patience shown by connections last year may be rewarded today.
His biggest rival looks to be the 109-rated Tower Of London 11/4, trained by Aiden O’Brien. The Ballydoyle barn has a good record with this type of horse at the Newmarket July meet and this son of Galileo has won his last two.
He won the Listed King George V Cup at Leopardstown before taking a drop down the class ladder to win the Ulster Derby (Premier Handicap) at Down Royal racecourse.
Both of those wins have come using stalking tactics and we can expect the same today. He is s strong stayer, and the only concern is if we have a lack of speed early. However, jockey Ryan Moore will not let this turn into a sprint and he may well send his horse to the speed early.
This is no two-horse race and Castle Way 3/1 from the Charlie Appleby barn is only rated 3 lbs inferior to the top two on the boards, yet arguably has the most room for improvement.
He won twice as a two-year-old, breaking the maiden tag the second time at Haydock Park racecourse. The inevitable step up the class ladder followed and he won a strong Allowance grade race at Newmarket. (final run as a two-year-old)
He has since come back this season and first time up he won the Listed Newmarket Stakes from Circle Of Fire who has since given that form a nice boost by running very well in a Grade 2 at Royal Ascot. Castle Way is a definite improver and he could gain tactical advantage and may try and go gate-to-wire here.
The other three have a lot to find, although the lightly raced longshot Klondike 10/1 could be interesting for exotics.
Bahrain Trophy Stakes Odds & Betting Pick
| Horse | Jockey | Horse Racing Odds by Jazzsports |
| Tower Of London | Ryan Moore | +225 |
| Saint George | Cierren Fallon | +250 |
| Castle Way | William Buick | +350 |
| Klondike | Tom Marquand | +900 |
| Land Legend | James Doyle | +1600 |
| Think First | Neil Callan | +6600 |
Both Saint George and Tower Of London deserve to be at the top of the betting based on form and ratings and it would not be a surprise if either of these won.
However, the race setup might not be ideal and the improving CASTLE WAY gets a strong vote to cause a minor upset.
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