PRIX DE L’ARC DE TRIOMPHE PREVIEW

This Preview covers Sunday’s racing card at the Longchamp racecourse, France.

The flat season is about to peak in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. It’s the richest turf race in Europe, and as usual, it attracted a stunning field of three-year-old and older horses. 

Prix Marcel Boussac

The turf G1 race for two-year-old fillies attracted the G3 winner Fleur D’Iris, who should relish the mile distance once again. Like other local contestants, she won’t mind the heavy going; still, it will be quite hard for these youngsters competing for the purse of €400.000. Raclette has two starts under the belt while remaining unbeaten; moreover, she drew clear of her rivals by 4 lengths.

However, it’s a question of how she’ll cope with Sunday’s competition, including Irish raider trained by Joseph O’Brien, Agartha, who scored the G2 Debutante Stakes and finished second the G1 race. However, she’s yet to cover the distance of a mile.

In the Prix Marcel Boussac, our pick is Raclette, for she seems classy enough to bag this.

Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere

The field of two-year-old colts and fillies is about to clash in this G1 turf race over the distance of 7 furlongs with the purse of €400.000 being up for grabs. At first sight, Ebro River is the leading chance here despite raring for his ninth start of the season. The Hugo Palmer bound chestnut doesn’t look like he minds the challenging campaign as he’s achieved his first G1 victory in his seventh outing, while last time out, he finished third in the G1 Vincent O’Brien Stakes.

He’s a consistent youngster and should play a huge role again, but Stone Age also seems an exciting prospect after his narrow defeat in the G2 Champion Juvenile Stakes. Angel Blue actually can relish the heavy ground, for he won a G2 race on soft, which also applies to Accakaba. The last to mention is Ancient Rome, who has scored a victory over the mile but should run well on a shorter distance, too. 

Our betting pick for the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere is Ancient Rome, as all of his three victorious exploits were impressive.

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe

The richest turf race in the European calendar offers the purse of €5.000.000, and the field of 15 three-year-old and older horses is about to clash here at the distance of a mile and a half. The G1 gem is an absolute pinnacle of the season as it attracted two derby winners, a double Classic winner, and some high-quality older participants.

The blue colours of Godolphin have a huge chance of spoiling the race for others as their duo of three-year-olds is quite dangerous for anybody else, for both of them won a derby. Adayar was a surprising winner at Epsom. The Charlie Appleby bound colt was a surprising scorer because he looked cumbersome in his previous starts, he couldn’t make his huge body move properly; however, when he hit the ground at Epsom, nobody could match his powerful stride in the final stage.

He bolted up for the front and drew clear of his rivals so easily; he was immediately considered an important player when meeting up with older horses. And the Frankel colt proved such opinions right in July when he faced more experienced participants in the G1 King George IV & Quee Elizabeth Stakes over a mile and a half, dominating the race in front of brilliant Mishriff.

Adayar hasn’t run since that outing; still, it could’ve only helped him recover after difficult races, so the only real question hanging over the bay’s head regards the heavy ground. He seems tough enough not to get discouraged by such a thing, but only Sunday will show how he handles it.

His stable-mate Hurricane Lane is also a derby-winner that was unbeaten until he clashed with Adayar at Epsom. Back then, the track simply didn’t fall into the chestnut’s favour as he showed some turn of foot, yet it didn’t resemble his previous exploits in trials. He finished third and went to Ireland to land their derby, and even though it wasn’t easy, Hurricane Lane was all heart when winning the Irish Derby by a neck.

Upon that, he travelled over the channel to absolutely destroy the G1 Prix de Paris competition over a mile and a half, and last time out, he aimed at taking another Classic victory – St Leger at Doncaster. The distance of a mile and 6 and a half furlongs wasn’t ideal for the Frankel colt; however, his class and courage showed once more as he hit the front in the final stretch and didn’t allow Mojo Star actually to pose a significant threat to him.

Hurricane Lane won by 2 a ¾ of a length, while it’s his last race that arouses most of the stipulations surrounding this colt. One can say that having so difficult races under his belt might result in the overall tiredness of the chestnut; still, there are indeed no concerns about him handling the ground because he’s already done it when winning the G1 at Longchamp. 

To conclude this segment covering three-year-olds favourites, it’s necessary to mention Snowfall trained by Aidan O’Brien. The bay filly wasn’t anything special as a two-year-old, but once she commenced this season, she drew some attention right away. After springing some surprise when winning a Classic trial, she was well-regarded for the Epsom Oaks; however, nobody could’ve expected the race over a mile and a half to transfer into a one-Snowfall-show. As the field turned for home, Snowfall just switched to another gear and scooted clear of her rivals, winning by an unbelievable margin of 16 lengths.

She then secured the Classic double when scoring the Irish Oaks, upon which he was successful also among older fillies in the G1 Yorkshire Oaks, so once she headed for the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp, nothing but a victory was expected.

Her defeat was shocking then as she just couldn’t pick up properly in the final stretch, being left in second by victorious Teona, who bypasses the Arc due to the going. Despite the loss, Snowfall needs to be respected because she handles dire conditions and because she’s a classy filly with a significant weight advantage over older horses and colts, including Alenqeur.

The William Haggas colt finished second behind Mishriff in the G1 Juddmonte International; however, the staying distance combined with the going might prove too tough on him.

In terms of older horses, Tarnawa is the leading chance against younger participants. She’s always been a lovely filly for Dermot Weld, but only last year she bolted among the elite when winning three G1 races in a row. She cares neither for the going nor for the distance; she just left behind all her rivals in Longchamp and then also in Keeneland at the Breeders’ Cup meeting.

Unexposed much in this season, she commenced it in August by an easy win in the G3, upon which she faced brilliant St Mark’s Basilica in the Irish Champion Stakes. Five-year-old Tarnawa was all heart in the final stretch, but the younger colt kept hanging right, preventing the chestnut mare from finishing properly, which resulted in Tarnawa’s second place. Her performance was eye-catching, though, so if she’s about to deliver a similar effort in Longchamp, she can bag the most prestigious victory of her career. Besides Snowfall, Aidan O’Brien relies on Broome, a G1 scorer at Saint-Cloud, and Love a fine filly; however, she won’t thrive on the heavy ground.

Regarding the duo of Japanese contestants, Deep Bond won the trial, but five-year-old mare Chrono Genesis seems classier. The winner of G1 Arima Kinen didn’t have any preparatory starts in France, which could be a concern together with the going. The French don’t have any stars in the Arc this year, but four-year-old Raabihah (20-1) trained by J-C Rouget could snatch a good place like last year, given she doesn’t mind the conditions.          

Our betting pick for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is Tarnawa because she’s already displayed affinity towards the soft ground; moreover, she’s a classy specimen tried among the elite.   

Prix de l’Opera

The G1 turf race open to three-year-old and older fillies and mares attracted the field of 15 participants who are about to clash at the distance of a mile and 2 furlongs. Audarya headlines the race and is preferred to snatch most of the purse of €500.000 as she seems to be the most classy mare in the field; moreover, she’s showed some form last time out. The five-year-old charge of James Fanshawe is quite a late burner as she wasn’t anything special during her three-year-old campaign, but she hit the track with a loud bang last August.

Offered at 48-1, Audarya won a G1 race at the first attempt, then finished third in the Prix de l’Opera, and concluded the season with a well-fought victory in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. She hasn’t succeeded this year yet, but her efforts in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot and the G1 Prix Jean Romanet were fine; in other words, Audarya just fell short to Grand Glory by a short head last time out. If the jockey doesn’t urge her to the front too soon, she could leave Grand Glory behind on Sunday. The favourite’s rival is again in the mix, of course; still, her record suggests she thrives on other tracks, while Lonchamp is definitely not her favourite. 

Some contestants of the Prix Vermeille will meet up again, and the Classic winner, Joan of Arc , should be the one to benefit from the shorter distance here as she was last to cross the wire last time out. Together with Thundering Nights, she shouldn’t mind the soft ground. The latter filly could get some nice place, which also applies to German contestant Palmas. The last to mention is Sibila Spain , who couldn’t hold a candle to the best three-year-old fillies, but she scored a Listed win in September and might be able to progress further.

In the Prix de l’Opera, we pick Audarya as she’s shown the most class recently. 

Prix de l’Abbay

The most prestigious race of Sunday’s card is held at the distance of 5 furlongs, while 15 two-year-old and older horses will compete for a purse of €350.000. On the turf surface, the G1 event has its favourite in Suesa trained by Francois Rohaut.

The three-year-old filly showed her potential over short trips as a junior, bagging a Listed victory, to which she added two G3 successes before she travelled to the Royal Ascot where the going in combination with 6 furlongs was too much on her. In July, she faced older sprinters in Goodwood, where she displayed a beautiful turn of foot, achieving her first G2 victory. Last time out, she was a bit disappointing in the Nunthorpe Stakes; her effort could be excused by the firm surface, though.

She should benefit from the softer ground on Sunday; still, other exciting sprinters are to cross her path, especially fillies. Staying in the three-year-old category, we need to mention Winter Power. The Tim Easterby bound bay ran nine times as the youngster, ending the season with two triumphs in the Listed and G3 companies, and she also commenced the season 2021 with other exploits at the Listed level.

Winter Power failed to impress at her first G1 attempt, so her commanding victory in the Nunthorpe stakes came as little shock. She was expected to improve; still, such a performance seemed too good to be true. However, the three-year-old filly couldn’t settle in her next start, the Flying Five Stakes at Curragh, as she was too keen and tired herself out quickly. She needs to save her energy for the finish; otherwise, she has no chance in this competitive race.

The mentioned event at Curragh saw a surprising victory of Romantic Proposal who, similarly as Winter Power, doesn’t seem to relish to the heavy ground that could appear at Longchamp. Glass Slippers could be the main threat for the favourite as she finished second in the Prix de l’Abbay last year, which she won in 2019. The five-year-old mare trained by Kevin Ryan has run only two times this season, so she should be fresh for Sunday; moreover, her form has peaked at this time in the past. It could be the same case in 2021; the competition is tough, though.

Together with Suesa, another local participant to play some role in this race is Berneuil, who is about to experience the G1 company for the very first time. He has a smooth G3 mystery under his belt, and there might be some more in his tank.

Our betting pick for the Prix de l’Abbay is Glass Slippers because she is reliable, consistent, and tries hard, which is always a treasured trait.

Prix de la Foret

The 7 furlong–long turf race is meant for three-year-old and older horses and offers the purse of €350.000. In this G1 event, Space Blues has the leading chance given he was unbeaten in all his European starts last year; moreover, the five-year-old horse trained by Charlie Appleby scored a rich race in Riyadh in February.

Since then, the chestnut hit the track twice, finishing fourth just by ¾ of a length behind Kinross , upon which Space Blues struck gold in the G2 City of York Stakes. Obviously, he bagged all of his successes on firmer ground, but he seems tough enough to overcome any difficulties the softer surface may throw in his face. Although Space Blues looks to be the classiest of all participants, there are some horses whose diligence could carry them to the glory.

For example, Kinross managed to win only a Listed race during last season, but once he was gelded and rerouted to slightly shorter distances, the four-year-old bay started to shine. At first, he won the G3 race, followed by the prolific G2 Lennox Stakes at Goodwood, and last time out, he wasn’t far away from the winner of the G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest. Trainer Ralph Beckett definitely has a promising sprinter in this charge, while another four year old, Pearls Galore, is also a  contestant who has made a strong argument in terms of belonging to the Grade scene.

The bay filly won two G3 races and ran a massive race in the G1 Matron Stakes at Leopardstown. It was a hectic event back then, so the results shouldn’t be taken deadly seriously, but the filly could earn some money here, too. Thunder Moon was a promising youngster last year, he hasn’t kept the shine to the season 2021, though, and his finest effort happened in the G1 Prix Jean Prat. The very soft ground and the distance of 7 furlongs suited him; therefore, he grabbed the close second place. Similar conditions on Sunday could go in his favour once more.

In order to mention some local participants, Sagamiyra won the trial for the race in front of Speak of the Devil, and Duhail has also been showing some sprinting potential lately. They aren’t expected to strike this, but they definitely have enough ability to hit the board. 

Our betting pick for the Prix de l’Abbaye is Space Blues due to his class, but we suggest trying out Thunder Moon for the braver wagers.

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