Saturday’s card at the Santa Anita Park features races for three-year-old horses, aiming at the Kentucky Oaks or Kentucky Derby, but there are also other exciting races worthy of our attention. The G2 Monrovia Stakes is meant for turf specialists, too, where Tobys Heart could successfully return to shorter trips, but the field is relatively strong here, comprising also talented Alice Marble.
The G2 Royal Heroine is another event open only to fillies and mares who will compete on the turf surface, while Going Global seems to be the clear favorite here, given she scored the G1 Del Mar Oaks in 2021.
While the G3 Providencia Stakes is actually just for three-year-old fillies. It’s held on a sprinter distance and the turf surface, though, where Lucky Girl could conclude a victorious hattrick
Monrovia S
On the turf surface, six four-year-old fillies and older mares line up in this G2 race where they are about to fight for the purse of $200,000. Tobys Heart should benefit from the distance of six and a half furlongs as the four-year-old filly showed up at a longer trip at the end of her 2021 campaign but didn’t shine at all, failing to impress also at the Listed scene.
Before these attempts, Tobys Heart scored a black-type race at the sprint distance and secured third place at the G3 stage. The Brian Lynch trainee is about to tackle the G2 company for the very first time. Still, she’s suggested that she could be quite good on such a trip. Philip D’Amato bound Alice Marble is really lightly races as being a five-year-old mare, she’s been out only ninth times, and after bagging a maiden, two Allowance wins, and a second place at the black-type scene, she scored at the same level in February.
It was a narrow victory, but it’s necessary to bear in mind that Alice Marble still could be at the beginning of her career peak, and therefore, she needs to be considered for her premiere Graded outing. Six-year-old Brooke Marie has never been faced with Graded company, and her chances aren’t bad at all. In the past, she was a useful Allowance performer; however, she achieved also second place in a Listed, and at the end of the 2021 season, she scored a black-type race for her trainer Eddie Kenneally.
In her seasonal debut, Brooke Marie finished third at the same scene, but she should relish Saturday’s distance where she has more time to unfold her finish in the closing stages.
Six-year-old Tapwater has some experience with Graded races, and even though she’s yet to bag even a Listed or black-type victory, she is a decent mare for the connections. In the past, she collected a couple of places at the G3 scene, including the G3 Las Cienegas Stakes, but subsequently, Tapwater finished only fifth in the black-type event. Four-year-old Royal Address hasn’t shown anything of interest when running against better competition, but her most recent Allowance triumph could suggest there’s something about her.
After all, she’s still pretty young and capable of progress. The last to mention is the seven-year-old Cover Version, who, indeed, easily won her March outing, but in her age, it’s hard to picture her as a Graded victress in the making.
Our Monrovia Stakes Betting Prediction is:
Tobys Heart, who has shown the most class in the field, and even though some of her rivals could improve since their last outings, Tobys Heart might be just too good for them.
| Horse | Jockey | Horse Racing Odds courtesy of JazzSports |
| Alice Marble | Edwin A. Maldonado | +200 |
| Tobys Heart | John R. Velazquez | +250 |
| Brooke Marie | Juan J. Hernandez | +350 |
| Cover Version | Kyle Frey | +1500 |
| Tapwater | Joe Bravo | +300 |
| Royal Address (IRE) | Drayden Van Dyke | +600 |
Royal Heroine S
This mile-long G2 event attracted a field of five four-year-old fillies and older mares who will clash for the purse of $200,000. On the turf surface, four-year-old Going Global (4-5) is a clear favourite not only because she struck gold during this meeting in 2021, namely in the Providencia Stakes, but also because she didn’t lose her form throughout the whole season, showing how consistent she is.
She scored especially the G1 Del Mar Oaks and the G2 Goldikova Stakes on the Breeders’ Cup day. Going Global then failed to shine in her last outing of 2021 when she finished sixth in the G1 American Oaks, but it might’ve been too long for her, or she was simply tired after a demanding season.
The Philip D’Amato filly should be well rested by now and ready to achieve another big victory; still, she could be threatened by her rivals that have already hit the track in 2022. We’re talking about her colleague, four-year-old Excelerina, who bagged a maiden and an Allowance victory in a fine style after arriving in the US.
It’s a question of how good she could be, given that Excelerina will tackle such a competition for the first time; however, she’s left a decent impression. Another four-year-old in the field, Park Avenue, has scored an Allowance in 2022, too, but as she recorded a place at the G3 scene, we already sort of know how she stands in Saturday’s competition, in other words, she’s expected to come home in third ahead of two remaining participants.
Both Javanica and Avenue de France reached some good results at the Graded scene, nothing of it poising them as quite dangerous for the favorite, though.
Our Royal Heroine Stakes Top Choice is:
Must be Going Global, who is the only G1 victress in the field, and if she regains the will to win that she possessed in the past, she’ll fulfil the role of a favourite here.
| Horse | Jockey | Horse Racing Odds courtesy of JazzSports |
| Going Global (IRE) | Umberto Rispoli | -125 |
| Excelerina (IRE) | Mike E. Smith | +250 |
| Javanica | John R. Velazquez | +800 |
| Park Avenue | Juan J. Hernandez | +400 |
| Avenue de France (FR) | Drayden Van Dyke | +800 |
Providencia S
Six three-year-old fillies will clash in this G3 race held on the turf surface with the purse of $100,000 up for grabs. The participants are about to cover the distance of a mile and a furlong, while the half of the field comprises fillies trained by Richard Baltas.
Lucky Girl could be the best of them, given she is unbeaten in two outings in 2022. As a two-year-old, she couldn’t score a maiden, but currently, she’s a Listed winner. In January, Lucky Girl won a mile-long black-type event with ease, upon which she bagged the China Doll Stakes in March after finishing from the rear of the field.
Back then, she carried the biggest weight, which is the case also on Saturday, but as she handled it last time out, Lucky Girl should overcome any difficulties once again and step up her game here. Sterling Crest faced her in the mentioned Listed and had to settle for third place; still, she was very close to the victress in the closing stages, so it’s not impossible for her to turn the tables on Lucky Girl, especially when carrying less weight.
Her seasonal debut resulted in a fine win in a maiden, and if she doesn’t lose her position throughout the race as last time out, Sterling Crest should be a decent opponent to her stable-mate. Gold Dragon Queen then finished fifth in the China Doll Stakes, and even though she was third in a black-type prior to that, she hasn’t hinted to be capable of bettering Lucky Girl at any stage of her career.
Although Richard Baltas trieshard to ensure he’s the most successful trainer in this race, the trio of rivals from the other yards is interesting, too. Especially Cairo Memories is respected because of her fine effort in the G1 Starlet Stakes in December.
Still, she’s far from being reliable due to her late finishes; she failed to impact the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and the G3 Santa Ysabel Stakes in March. There’s some quality about the Robert B. Hess jr. filly; however, she seems prone to show it only rarely. Eleuthera then failed on both occasions she was faced with the black-type company, and even though she scored a maiden smoothly last time out, she needs to progress a lot to have a say on Saturday.
The last to discuss is Sixteen Arches, trained by Philip D’Amato with a single outing under her belt. In January, the Mehmas filly debuted in Dundalk, an Irish racecourse, and triumphed among maidens by a neck.
| Horse | Jockey | Horse Racing Odds courtesy of JazzSports |
| Eleuthera | Mario Gutierrez | +400 |
| Sterling Crest (IRE) | Umberto Rispoli | +300 |
| Cairo Memories | Mike. Smith | +350 |
| Lucky Girl (IRE) | Joe Bravo | +250 |
| Gold Dragon Queen | Jose Valdivia, Jr. | +1200 |
| Sixteen Arches (IRE) | Juan J. Hernandez | +300 |
Our Providencia Stakes Top Pick is:
Lucky Girl, as she bettered all of her colleagues, and every single one of her Saturday rivals needs to improve significantly to beat her in this race. With the exception of Cairo Memories, who is a very good filly, but everything has to go into her stride to actually show it.
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