Senorita Stakes Odds, Field & Betting Picks

With a recent stakes win down Santa Anita’s unique hillside turf course in hand, Bob Baffert’s Fast and Shiny rates top billing in a wide open G3, $100,000 Senorita Stakes on Saturday, Kentucky Derby Day

Senorita Stakes

Grade 3 – Purse $100,000 – 6  ½ Furlongs – Turf – 3-Year-Old Fillies

Can Teena Ella use her 2lb weight pull and take revenge on Fast And Shiny after they finished first and second in the Angels Flight Stakes?

One of those sprints which will take place on Santa Anita’s downhill turf course, so form on this track can play a big part in the outcome.

The morning line odds are tight and our current chalk is Teena Ella 5/2 and she has improved tremendously since switching to the lawn. She broke the maiden tag two back and then backed that up with a strong second over this track and distance when second in the Angel’s Flight Stakes.

That run showed she handles this unique track and that was the first time she had gone further than six furlongs and she closed willingly to the wire that day.

Chismosa 8/1 is coming back from an eight-month layoff, so clearly the horse must have had some problem to have not been seen on the track since September. She has won all three starts, winning an $89k Maiden Special Weight on debut before taking two minor stakes races. She has plenty of early speed and may try and go gate-to-wire here. Recent drills have been sharp, so she is not discounted.

Challenging for the chalk position are The Wild Grazer 3/1 and AG Bullet 3/1. The latter has already won over the six and a half furlongs here at Santa Anita but her two most recent appearances have been over a mile or more. Today’s cutback in distance looks to give plenty of upside, as she won the Lady Shamrock two back over a mile and will be a stalker of the likely pace coming from Fast And Shiny.

The Wild Grazer finished a neck behind AG Bullet in that mile race but is one who has won over this unique downhill course. She is another very lightly raced filly and will be closing late.

Fast And Shiny beat the chalk a length when they met in the Angel’s Flight and now has to concede another 2lbs to the Richard Mandella barn inmate. That should make it very close between those two runners.

Tom’s Regret 15/1 looks outclassed here but the best piece of form in the race is held by Procrastination 8/1 who was second in the Grade 2 Sorrento Stakes last year. She has since run a nice race in an Allowance contest last time and the stretch-out by half a furlong gives some upside.

Senorita Stakes Betting Pick

It’s a very tight race and if Fast And Shiny can get on the speed, she will be tough to pass and looks sure to hit the board.

However, the selection at a nice price on the board is PROCRASTINATION who looks sure to enjoy the extra half a furlongs and she looks the classiest filly on paper.

The Wild Grazer could well turn round the form with AG Bullet and she is fancied to run a big race and can grab a slice underneath.

HorseJockeyOdds by Jazzsports
The Wild Grazer (IRE)Hector Isaac Berrios+300
Teena EllaEdwin A. Maldonado+250
Ag BulletJoe Bravo+300
ProcrastinationRicardo Gonzalez+800
ChismosaEdgar Payeras+800
Tom’s RegretKyle Frey+1500
Fast and ShinyAbel Cedillo+350

Lazaro Barrera

Stakes – Purse $100,000 – 7 Furlongs – Dirt– 3-Year-Olds

Can One In Vermillion back up his fantastic run in the Santa Anita Derby and win getting some significant class relief today?

Just four runners go to the gate for this minor stakes race which has now been downgraded from a Grade 3. It is a disappointing field size but even with four runners, it creates an interesting puzzle to solve.

The chalk on the morning line is Hard To Figure at 7/5 and he has been running in graded stakes company the last three times. He was a very good second two back in the RBLewis Stakes when beaten just a neck, and in the process achieved a 100 Beyer Speed figure, which is the best on offer in this short field. Does he deserve to be the chalk based on that? I have my doubts.

Next in the betting is Navy Man 8/5 and he already looks pretty exposed. He has had five runs and only broke the maiden tag last time so will need to show a jolt of improvement to win this. His best form has been over a little shorter than this so he does have to answer the question mark over the trip having already been well held over a mile previously.

The two other runners are the debutante winner Tahoe Sunrise 3/1 and One In Vermillion 4/1

Tahoe Sunrise was game on debut and the tactics here will be to try and go gate to wire and he’ll be battling on the speed with One In Vermillion. It will be interesting to see if he can step up his game now moving up the class ladder against winners.

One In Vermillion has the best form on the card having finished fourth last time behind Kentucky Derby hopeful Practical Move (now scratched from the big one)

He tried to go gate to wire over the mile and one-eighth trip and only gave way late on, and was beaten just over four lengths. If he can get on the speed from his inside gate then he’ll provide a target to aim at that the others might not reach.

Lazaro Barrera Betting Prediction

From a betting perspective, the chalk is of no real value here and the one we think will win is ONE IN VERMILLION.

His run in the Santa Anita Derby is the best piece of form on offer and the class drop gives plenty of upside. He has already finished in front of Hard To Figure in the Sunland Derby and no reason to believe that form can be turned around here.

For the board places, the unexposed Tahoe Sunrise looks like the main danger ahead of Navy Man.

HorseJockeyOdds by Jazzsports
One in VermillionHector Isaac Berrios+400
Hard to FigureAbel Cedillo+140
Tahoe SunriseMike E. Smith+300
Navy ManKent J. Desormeaux+160

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