Spinster Stakes Odds & Betting Predictions

The G1 Spinster Stakes, the feature at Keeneland on Sunday, is a compelling contest that sets up as a straight fight between two brilliant fillies, with last year’s three-year-old champ Nest bidding for revenge over the progressive G1 winner Idiomatic, who came out on top the last time they met.

Breeders Cup Odds

Spinster Stakes

G1, $600,000, 1m 1f dirt, 3yo+ females, 5.16pm ET

Here is another 50-50 choice, red or black, City or United, the main event at Keeneland on Sunday breaking down into a match between the established star and the coming force. The Spinster is also a win-and-in for the G1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff but there are major bragging rights at stake before we get there.

The set-up is perfect. The reigning queen is Nest (6-5), last year’s champion three-year-old filly with an eight-for-13 count, three G1s, only off the board once. She looked as good as ever when cruising in the 2023 G2 Shuvee at Saratoga on her belated comeback, but a crack appeared in her armour next time in the 2023 G1 Personal Ensign over a mile-eighth at the same circuit.

That crack was created and exploited by Idiomatic (7-5), the pretender to the throne, who got an easy lead on a sloppy track and just kept rolling, drawing away late to score by four lengths with Nest only a weary third. The boxcar longshot Malloy (30-1) was 12 lengths further back in fourth and Sixtythreecaliber (15-1) was last of six.

It was a clear career-best for Idiomatic, although it had been coming – this win followed victory in the 2023 G3 Shawnee at Churchill Downs by two and a half lengths from Sixtythreecaliber and the 2023 G2 Delaware at Delaware Park – and there is probably more to come.

Idiomatic might be the new Nest. Can the old Nest bite back? It is a positive for her that there is likely to be a contested lead this time, Idiomatic having to deal with company out front, which will give Nest pace to run at. Nest is 4lb better from the Personal Ensign, which also helps. But this race is in the balance, it could go either way, as the morning-line shows.

If there is an upset it might be Le Da Vida (6-1), although she will need much more than her best effort in the US since leaving Chile, which was a comfortable success in a mile-eighth stakes at tiny Thistledown in June, with Sixtythreecaliber three and three-quarter lengths back in third and Misty Veil (20-1) another four lengths away fourth.

Le Da Vida is zero-for-four in Graded stakes and this is a very tough spot to snap that streak, but she is on the spot if one or both of the big two misfires. Bellamore (20-1) has never even won a stakes, although exactly a year ago she ran third in the 2022 G1 Rodeo Drive at Santa Anita, so there is a little something there and she figures to be part of a race-defining pace scenario.

2023 Spinster Stakes Odds

HorseJockeyHorse Racing Odds by Jazzsports
SixtythreecaliberEdgar Morales+1500
IdiomaticFlorent Geroux+140
NestIrad Ortiz, Jr.+120
Le Da Vida (CHI)Vincent Cheminaud+600
BellamoreMartin Garcia+2000
Misty VeilJames Graham+2000
MalloyJose Lezcano+3000

Either of the big names could win easily. Slight preference is for NEST, who will be favoured by the race set-up and whose best form sets the standard.

Check out the 2023 Spinster Stakes: A Piece of Cake for Idiomatic

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