Kentucky Derby Future Book

There are two great pillars of the US calendar, the Breeders’ Cup and the Kentucky Derby, pitched almost exactly six months apart. When one is over, it is time to begin looking forward to the other, so here we examine the fledgling future book for the ‘Run for the Roses’ at Churchill Downs next May. Here’s our 2024 Kentucky Derby Future Book with odds courtesy of JazzSports.

KENTUCKY DERBY ODDS

Kentucky Derby Future Book

G1, $3,000,000, 1m 2f, 3yo, Churchill Downs, May 4

Fierceness stands out amid the uncertainty

There are many problems associated with finding the winner of the Kentucky Derby, as recent history shows. Three of the last four Derby winners had not even made their debut before this publication date of November 8. The 2022 winner Rich Strike only made the final field on the day before the race, and earlier this year the morning-line favourite Forte was scratched on race day morning.

Yet hope springs eternal. The obvious place to start is with the winner of the 2023 G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita, although – bettor beware – only two winners of the Juvenile have ever gone on to win the Derby.

It was an amazing performance from Fierceness (+900), bouncing back from a shellacking in the 2023 G1 Champagne to rout his rivals, stalking a fair pace before clearing right away to win by six and a quarter lengths from Muth (+2000), with his favored barnmate Locked (+2000) coming along late to be a never-nearer third, a half-length further behind, and Timberlake (+3000) fourth, a length and a quarter back.

Fierceness deserves to be the favorite and is evidently a high-class runner, as Muth, Locked, and Timberlake had all won G1s on their previous start and were left for dead by the rampant winner. The G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on March 30 will be his main prep, with one run before.

Other winners at the top level

Muth – like Juvenile fifth Prince Of Monaco (+4000), wide-margin debut winner Nysos (+2000), Del Mar sprint winner Heartland (+2200) and several others – is ineligible for the Derby while he remains with Bob Baffert. Watch this space, is the only advice possible.

Another winner at the top level is Nutella Fella (+4000), who upset the seven-furlong 2023 G1 Hopeful at Saratoga at 54-1, beating Timberlake by a length and a half. If the form can be relied upon – and at those odds it is never certain – he could be a big piece of the puzzle.

Rhyme Schemes (+2000) ran them out of town in the G2 Saratoga Special over six and a half furlongs, romping by nine and a half lengths. Where’s Chris (+3000) and Book’em Danno (+1500) are one apiece in two meetings at stakes level, with Where’s Chris coming out on top by three-quarters of a length when they stretched out to a mile for the first time at Aqueduct.

And every decent maiden winner is in the mix. Sierra Leone (+2500) represents the Coolmore crew and won on debut over a mile at Aqueduct; Air Of Defiance (+2500) got it done on his second start by six lengths at Keeneland over seven furlongs; Knightsbridge (+2500), a half-brother to G1 winner Speaker’s Corner, hosed them by ten and a half lengths on debut at Churchill Downs over seven furlongs.

Right now, if you think you know the Derby winner, no one can say you are wrong – and you will get good odds about your fancy.

2024 Kentucky Derby Odds

HORSEODDS BY JAZZSPORTS
FIERCENESS+900
LOCKED+2000
BOOK EM DANNO+1500
CITY OF TROY+2000
MUTH+2000
RHYME SCHEMES+2000
AIR OF DEFIANCE+2500
HEARTLAND+2200
TIMBERLAKE+3000
GOLD SWEEP+3300
LAST CALL LONDON+3300
LORD PRANCEALOT+3300
PRINCE OF MONACO+4000
RIVER TIBER+3300
WINE ME UP+5000
AIR CAV+4000
AWESOME ROAD+4000
DR.NO NO+4000
HURRICANE NELSON+4000
MIRAHMADI+5000
NUTELLA FELLA+4000
THE WINE STEWARD+5000
BE YOU+5000
CATIRE VIZCAYA+5000
GENERAL PARTNER+5000
GENEROUS TIPPER+5000
GETTYSBURG ADDRESS+5000
PIRATE+5000
SELF SUFFICIENT+5000
TELL PAUL+5000
NOTED+6500
KNIGHTSBRIDGE+2500
NYSOS+2000
URBAN LEGEND+5000
PILOT COMMANDER+5000
SIERRA LEONE+2500
SLAMMIN GOLD+6000
DRESDEN ROW+7500
WHERES CHRIS+3000

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