There are two great pillars of the US calendar, the Breeders’ Cup and the Kentucky Derby, pitched almost exactly six months apart. When one is over, it is time to begin looking forward to the other, so here we examine the fledgling future book for the ‘Run for the Roses’ at Churchill Downs next May. Here’s our 2024 Kentucky Derby Future Book with odds courtesy of JazzSports.
Kentucky Derby Future Book
G1, $3,000,000, 1m 2f, 3yo, Churchill Downs, May 4
Fierceness stands out amid the uncertainty
There are many problems associated with finding the winner of the Kentucky Derby, as recent history shows. Three of the last four Derby winners had not even made their debut before this publication date of November 8. The 2022 winner Rich Strike only made the final field on the day before the race, and earlier this year the morning-line favourite Forte was scratched on race day morning.
Yet hope springs eternal. The obvious place to start is with the winner of the 2023 G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita, although – bettor beware – only two winners of the Juvenile have ever gone on to win the Derby.
It was an amazing performance from Fierceness (+900), bouncing back from a shellacking in the 2023 G1 Champagne to rout his rivals, stalking a fair pace before clearing right away to win by six and a quarter lengths from Muth (+2000), with his favored barnmate Locked (+2000) coming along late to be a never-nearer third, a half-length further behind, and Timberlake (+3000) fourth, a length and a quarter back.
Fierceness deserves to be the favorite and is evidently a high-class runner, as Muth, Locked, and Timberlake had all won G1s on their previous start and were left for dead by the rampant winner. The G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on March 30 will be his main prep, with one run before.
Other winners at the top level
Muth – like Juvenile fifth Prince Of Monaco (+4000), wide-margin debut winner Nysos (+2000), Del Mar sprint winner Heartland (+2200) and several others – is ineligible for the Derby while he remains with Bob Baffert. Watch this space, is the only advice possible.
Another winner at the top level is Nutella Fella (+4000), who upset the seven-furlong 2023 G1 Hopeful at Saratoga at 54-1, beating Timberlake by a length and a half. If the form can be relied upon – and at those odds it is never certain – he could be a big piece of the puzzle.
Rhyme Schemes (+2000) ran them out of town in the G2 Saratoga Special over six and a half furlongs, romping by nine and a half lengths. Where’s Chris (+3000) and Book’em Danno (+1500) are one apiece in two meetings at stakes level, with Where’s Chris coming out on top by three-quarters of a length when they stretched out to a mile for the first time at Aqueduct.
And every decent maiden winner is in the mix. Sierra Leone (+2500) represents the Coolmore crew and won on debut over a mile at Aqueduct; Air Of Defiance (+2500) got it done on his second start by six lengths at Keeneland over seven furlongs; Knightsbridge (+2500), a half-brother to G1 winner Speaker’s Corner, hosed them by ten and a half lengths on debut at Churchill Downs over seven furlongs.
Right now, if you think you know the Derby winner, no one can say you are wrong – and you will get good odds about your fancy.
2024 Kentucky Derby Odds
HORSE | ODDS BY JAZZSPORTS |
FIERCENESS | +900 |
LOCKED | +2000 |
BOOK EM DANNO | +1500 |
CITY OF TROY | +2000 |
MUTH | +2000 |
RHYME SCHEMES | +2000 |
AIR OF DEFIANCE | +2500 |
HEARTLAND | +2200 |
TIMBERLAKE | +3000 |
GOLD SWEEP | +3300 |
LAST CALL LONDON | +3300 |
LORD PRANCEALOT | +3300 |
PRINCE OF MONACO | +4000 |
RIVER TIBER | +3300 |
WINE ME UP | +5000 |
AIR CAV | +4000 |
AWESOME ROAD | +4000 |
DR.NO NO | +4000 |
HURRICANE NELSON | +4000 |
MIRAHMADI | +5000 |
NUTELLA FELLA | +4000 |
THE WINE STEWARD | +5000 |
BE YOU | +5000 |
CATIRE VIZCAYA | +5000 |
GENERAL PARTNER | +5000 |
GENEROUS TIPPER | +5000 |
GETTYSBURG ADDRESS | +5000 |
PIRATE | +5000 |
SELF SUFFICIENT | +5000 |
TELL PAUL | +5000 |
NOTED | +6500 |
KNIGHTSBRIDGE | +2500 |
NYSOS | +2000 |
URBAN LEGEND | +5000 |
PILOT COMMANDER | +5000 |
SIERRA LEONE | +2500 |
SLAMMIN GOLD | +6000 |
DRESDEN ROW | +7500 |
WHERES CHRIS | +3000 |
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