Seven weeks out from the Kentucky Derby and all the biggest 100-point preps are still to come, beginning with the Louisiana Derby and UAE Derby next Saturday. Here we look at the current future-book scene, with Todd Pletcher responsible for market leaders Forte and Tapit Trice, west-coast trainer Tim Yakteen well represented with Practical Move and Reincarnate, and Brad Cox with several contenders including Instant Coffee and Hit Show. As a rule of thumb, 40 Road to the Kentucky Derby points are sufficient to seal a place in the Derby. Here we have the Kentucky Derby Future Book 2023.
Kentucky Derby
G1, $3,000,000, 1m 2f, 3yo, Churchill Downs, May 6
Forte RTKD qualifying points: 90 Trainer: Todd Pletcher +300
Won G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park over mile-sixteenth, dominant and very impressive; last year’s champion two-year-old colt with three G1 wins; five-for-six lifetime and a worthy favourite but stamina still a valid question, may clarify that position in mile-eighth G1 Florida Derby back at Gulfstream on April 1.
Tapit Trice 50 Todd Pletcher +700
Won G3 Tampa Bay Derby over mile-sixteenth, charging hard late for comfortable two-length score on stakes debut; three-for-four lifetime and likely to have necessary stamina, but habit of breaking slowly not ideal for typical Derby scenario; final prep likely to be mile-eighth G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 8.
Practical Move 60 Tim Yakteen +1250
Won G2 San Felipe over mile-sixteenth at Santa Anita, finishing off race strongly to win by two and a half lengths and stamina not perceived as an issue; three-for-six lifetime, earlier won G2 Los Alamitos Futurity and leads the California crop; will have final prep in mile-eighth G1 Santa Anita Derby on April 8.
Instant Coffee 32 Brad Cox +1500
Won G3 Lecomte at the Fair Grounds over mile-sixteenth, a tenacious grinder who should stay further; three-for-four lifetime including G2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs, only defeat in G1; runs in mile and three-sixteenths G2 Louisiana Derby back at the Fair Grounds next Saturday.
Reincarnate 15 Tim Yakteen +1800
Won G3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita, third G2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park behind Confidence Game, did well to overcome difficult trip and better than bare result suggests; two-for-six lifetime and heads for mile-eighth G1 Arkansas Derby on April 1.
Confidence Game 57 Keith Desormeaux +2500
Won G2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park over mile-sixteenth, stakes breakthrough, saw race out well; three-for-seven lifetime, big step forward after third behind Instant Coffee in G3 Lecomte; could go Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass, or straight to Churchill Downs.
Geaux Rocket Ride 20 Richard Mandella +3000
Runner-up G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita on stakes debut; one-for-two lifetime, very short on experience but has speed and is progressing rapidly; will meet San Felipe winner Practical Move again in Santa Anita Derby.
Hit Show 20 Brad Cox +3000
Won G3 Withers at Aqueduct over mile-eighth on stakes debut, romping from moderate opposition; three-for-four lifetime and goes for mile-eighth G2 Wood Memorial back at Aqueduct on April 8 or Arkansas Derby.
Red Route One 33 Steve Asmussen +3000
Runner-up G2 Rebel and G3 Southwest, both at Oaklawn Park; zero-for-five since maiden score and can’t be seriously considered until he snaps that streak; likely final prep in Arkansas Derby.
Verifying 14 Brad Cox +3000
Fourth G2 Rebel behind Confidence Game, Red Route One and Reincarnate, keeping on well after tough trip and should stay further; two-for-five lifetime and never won a stakes, will have chance to change that in Blue Grass.
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